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Government of Canada / Gouvernement du Canada

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Decadal forecasts for Canada

The following page shows decadal forecasts for Canada. Users can interact with this map by selecting percentiles, variables, time period, and season. Gridded data is presented as anomalies compared to the baseline climatology period 1991 – 2020. For example, a +1.4°C temperature anomaly forecasts that the average temperature for the filtered period may be 1.4°C above the average temperature recorded between 1991 and 2020. Data are from global forecasting centers contributing to the WMO Lead Center for Annual to Decadal Prediction. These forecasts can help Canadians anticipate the possible range of changes in climate over the next decade, and provide a bridge between ECCC’s seasonal forecasts and long-term climate projections.
Map interaction Users can interact with the map below through a range of methods:
  • To zoom in and out of specific regions of the map, use scroll
  • To drop a point on the map, double-click a point or select a location result found by the location search bar underneath the map
  • Move the central focus of the map by clicking and dragging the image
  • Manage any dropped points using the list in the sidebar

Download options:

Preview/table options:

Max number of points is 10.
map
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Download map as PNG Download map as PNG (with markers) Download data as NetCDF

Time period selection has no impact on dataset download. NetCDFs contain all time periods.

Percentiles for selected points

This section offers users an alternative approach for comparing selected points on the map of Canada. Users can choose up to 10 points above and compare the percentiles of predicted anomalies across the range by using data filters for season, year, and the forecast variable. Users can then download these datasets as a CSV using the button below.

Coordinates Percentile
Point Lat Lon 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th
Download table as CSV

Ensembles Info

The ensemble percentiles represent the value below which a certain percentage of values in a group fall. The 50th percentile describes the most probable climate anomaly according to the collection of model forecasts. Percentiles offer some of the range of the forecasted climate anomalies predicted by the included models.

How to add markers

To add a new marker, click on the Add Marker button. You can add up to 10 markers. To remove a marker, click on its respective delete button. You can modify the location of the marker by double-clicking anywhere on the map or by using the location search bar. The currently selected marker is highlighted in purple and you can switch between markers using the menu.

Years Info

Tabulated datasets and maps displaying the multi-model percentiles of the forecasted anomalies for Canada are averaged across 5 years to improve the reliability of results along this timeline. This filter represents the rolling average period for the forecasted variables.

CSV Download Info

The downloaded table will be a CSV file containing the names of the selected markers, their nearest coordinates on the 1x1 degree grid, and their anomalies in all 5 percentiles (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th percentile). This table can be used to quickly compare locations across the forecast range predicted by the ensemble of models.

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